51 Results for : forecasters

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    The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 981min
    Updated for 2020 with a New Preface by Nate Silver "One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review) Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Mike Chamberlain. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/peng/001972/bk_peng_001972_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    • Price: 9.95 EUR excl. shipping
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    Awoken: The Lucidites , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 721min
    Around the world humans are hallucinating after sleepless nights. In a sterile, underground institute the forecasters keep reporting the same events. And in the backwoods of Texas, a 16-year-old girl is about to be caught up in a fierce, ethereal battle. Meet Roya Stark. She drowns every night in her dreams, spends her hours reading classic literature to avoid her family's ridicule, and is prone to premonitions - which are becoming more frequent. And now her dreams are filled with strangers offering to reveal what she has always wanted to know: Who is she? That's the question that haunts her, and she's about to find out. But will Roya live to regret learning the truth? ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Elizabeth Klett. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/acx0/035661/bk_acx0_035661_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    • Price: 9.95 EUR excl. shipping
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    Profit From Your Forecasting Software
    Profit From Your Forecasting Software ab 32.99 € als epub eBook: A Best Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters. Aus dem Bereich: eBooks, Fachthemen & Wissenschaft, Mathematik,
    • Shop: hugendubel
    • Price: 32.99 EUR excl. shipping
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    Profit From Your Forecasting Software
    Profit From Your Forecasting Software ab 32.99 € als pdf eBook: A Best Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters. Aus dem Bereich: eBooks, Fachthemen & Wissenschaft, Mathematik,
    • Shop: hugendubel
    • Price: 32.99 EUR excl. shipping
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    The Lucidites Boxed Set , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 2123min
    In a world where dreams are real, nightmares reign. Around the world humans are hallucinating after sleepless nights. In a sterile, underground institute the forecasters keep reporting the same events. And in the backwoods of Texas, a 16-year-old girl is about to be caught up in a fierce, ethereal battle. Meet Roya Stark. She drowns every night in her dreams, spends her hours reading classic literature to avoid her family's ridicule, and is prone to premonitions - which are becoming more frequent. And now her dreams are filled with strangers offering to reveal what she has always wanted to know: Who is she? That's the question that haunts her, and she's about to find out. But will Roya live to regret learning the truth? ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Elizabeth Klett. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/acx0/067570/bk_acx0_067570_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    • Price: 9.95 EUR excl. shipping
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    Snow
    Snow is a 1998 New York Times Outstanding Book of the Year and a 1999 Caldecott Honor Book. "It's snowing, said boy with dog. "It's only a snowflake," said grandfather with beard. No one thinks one or two snowflakes will amount to anything. Not the man with the hat or the lady with the umbrella. Not even the television or the radio forecasters. But one boy and his dog have faith that the snow will amount to something spectacular, and when flakes start to swirl down on the city, they are also the only ones who know how to truly enjoy it. Uri Shulevitz' playful depiction of a snowy day and the transformation of a city is perfectly captured in simple, poetic text and lively watercolor and pen-and-ink illustrations.
    • Shop: buecher
    • Price: 8.99 EUR excl. shipping
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    The Trend Forecaster's Handbook (eBook, ePUB)
    Sharp, in-depth and highly visual, this is the fully revised textbook and teaching aid for students, tutors and in-house learning and development teams keen to know more about the world of trends, forecasting, innovation thinking and strategic foresight. Designed and written as a practical 'how to' guide for design, marketing, brand and innovation studies students, updated chapters include the latest research and industry case studies on superforecasting, three horizon scanning, scenario planning, foresight framework building and the creation and running of your own trend and innovation sprints. Students also have a chance to mix and merge the worlds of forecasting with future studies as we look at how techniques and processes such as the Delphi Method, cross-impact analysis, futures wheels and backcasting are being used by next generation forecasters to expand the ways they map, assess and define the needs and behaviours of tomorrow's consumers.
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    • Price: 3.99 EUR excl. shipping
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    Reengineering Yourself: Using Tomorrow's Success Tools to Excel Today, Hörbuch, Digital, 340min
    Recent scientific and technological breakthroughs have provided us with a new set of equipment which will increase our productivity and efficiency in all areas. Being familiar with this equipment - and knowing how to creatively apply it - is rapidly becoming a matter of business survival and a key to personal gain. But information about the changing technological tools of tomorrow is just the beginning of what you will learn in this exciting program by Daniel Burrus, one of the world's premiere technology forecasters and futurists. Perhaps more importantly, he also explores the spirit and impetus behind these changes, investigating how the business world's mindset is evolving now and will continue during the 21st century. You will also learn: the new rules for success in the 21st century. why the current successes may contain the seeds of future failure. how to foster innovation and move beyond your competition. how to apply technology in new and useful ways. a new and powerful method for "Viewing" and shaping the future. how to become "pre-active" to future-known events rather than reactive to your current dilemmas. positioning for maximum advantage tomorrow. how and why to build a "toolbox" for tomorrow. Language: English. Narrator: Dan Burrus. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/ntgl/000246/bk_ntgl_000246_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    • Price: 9.95 EUR excl. shipping
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    Forecasting Fundamentals
    This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
    • Shop: buecher
    • Price: 18.99 EUR excl. shipping
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    Building a Conscious Money Strategy, Hörbuch, Digital, 54min
    When it comes to money, we all want to learn to make better choices and do it more often. In this interview, Patricia Aburdene tells us that "money is the power of human consciousness in motion". She describes the fair-trade movement, conscious capitalism and mindful spending, and also why it is important not be too attached to financial goals. She defines the three steps we can take to integrate our money shadow or limiting beliefs about money. She also encourages us to invest in our own creativity, and shares how journaling can enhance our creativity. Patricia Aburdene is widely acclaimed as one of the world’s leading social forecasters. She has lectured throughout North and South America, Europe, Australia, and the Pacific Rim, helping thousands of corporations and millions of people make the most of social transformation. Ms. Aburdene is co-author of Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990s (William Morrow 1990) and the best-selling Megatrends for Women: From Liberation to Leadership (Ballantine Books 1993), and is also author of Megatrends 2010: The Rise of Conscious Capitalism; Seven New Trends That Will Influence How You Work and How You Invest (Hampton Roads 2005), and Conscious Money: Living, Creating, and Investing with Your Values for a Sustainable New Prosperity (Beyond Words 2012). Language: English. Narrator: Justine Willis Toms. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/rt/newd/000071/rt_newd_000071_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
    • Shop: Audible
    • Price: 9.95 EUR excl. shipping

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